War in Ukraine enters new stage

1,000 days into the war, Ukraine struck a military target in Russia with long-range US missiles.

Corina Cristea, 05.12.2024, 14:00

On the 1,000th day of the war, Ukraine struck a military target in Russia with long-range US ATACMS missiles. It was the first time that, with the consent of the United States, missiles of this type were used on Russian territory, the ease of restrictions being part of the Biden Administration’s effort to give Ukraine everything it can before the inauguration, on January 20, of Donald Trump. The decision is also intended to deter Pyongyang from sending more troops to Russia. How does this decision impact the course of the war?

Profesor Iulian Chifu, President of the Centre for Conflict Prevention and Early Warning explains:

“We shouldn’t forget that this is not the ultimate weapon, it’s not a game changer, it’s not the nuclear weapon at the end of World War II. So it doesn’t automatically ensure victory. However, it ensures a sanction. It is a retaliation against the employment of North Korea as a co-belligerent by the Russian Federation and a retaliation against the massive attacks on the electricity production structure in Ukraine. The two elements of escalation needed one element for rebalancing and credible deterrence, as happened every time there was some form of retaliation. And here, this time, the West found a way, primarily the United States, to lift this ban. Of course, it also applies to the British and French Storm Shadow and Scalp missiles, which have American components. That was the only roadblock to Ukraine using them on the ground.”

Shortly after, the Kremlin’s response came. Vladimir Putin signed a decree amending Russia’s nuclear doctrine, lowering the level of threats that would justify a nuclear strike in response to a wider range of conventional attacks. On the ground, Moscow continues its counteroffensive in the Kursk region – the site of Kyiv’s only major military success this year – and is gaining key points along the front lines. Can Moscow still support the military offensive? Professor Iulian Chifu again:

“We are facing a long-term war. Russia’s goals have not changed. Russia wants to bring Ukraine to its knees, to put a puppet government in Kyiv and to have a landlocked Ukraine, obviously, to reach NATO’s borders, including here, at the Black Sea, which interests us the most. On the other hand, if we discuss finance, things are obviously very expensive, and Putin is pawning the future of his own state. There are major problems in this economic-financial area. As we can see, the central bank has already raised the interest rate to 21%, which is unprecedented in the last 20 or so years, and there are major problems with inflation, and with production. These things also affect things on the front. Since the beginning of the year, the equivalent of five divisions have been lost, primarily equipment, but also people, all for 40 square km of territory.”

The slow war – often called a war of attrition, in which each side tries to wear the other side down – has drained the resources of both countries after nearly three years of conflict. It appears that it will continue to require huge amounts and claim many more lives. For 2025, Russia has earmarked a record budget for defence, accounting for a third of government spending. At the same time, the United States has decided to provide Ukraine with an arms package worth more than 700 million dollars to defend itself against Russian attacks. Will Kyiv manage to stop Russia’s military offensive? University professor and foreign policy analyst Dan Dungaciu:

“I have a feeling that the support that America is providing today to Ukraine has to do more with strengthening Ukraine’s resistance capacity and strengthening Ukraine’s negotiating position in possible negotiations. It is not military support that can help Ukraine prepare a counteroffensive to drive the Russian troops out of Ukraine, because that is no longer possible. So, we are now supporting Ukraine in order to increase its negotiation capacity in the event of a discussion or peace negotiation with the Russian Federation. So, this is the situation right now, on the threshold of what is expected be the most terrible of winters for the Ukrainian population.”

The Ukrainian population itself has changed its attitude towards the war, says foreign policy analyst Dan Dungaciu. Last year, somewhere around 33% of Ukrainians wanted negotiations, but this percentage grew to around 52% today, so that’s more than half of the country’s population. Confidence in the final military victory has decreased almost dramatically compared to last year, including as a result of the developments on the front, which, unfortunately, do not go in the direction that Ukraine wants.