Economic growth in Romania

The Romanian economy has grown, but statistics experts are revising figures downwards

Ştefan Stoica, 16.11.2022, 14:00

Romania
reports the highest economic growth rate in the European Union compared to the
previous quarter, on the same level with Cyprus, while other member states have
seen growth rates below 1% or even negative rates.

The
first estimates made public by the National Statistics Institute indicate that
in the 3rd quarter of the year, the Gross Domestic Product went up 1.3%
compared to the previous quarter and by 4.7% compared to Q3 2021. The data, the
institution explains, was adjusted by seasonality and number of working days.

For
the first 9 months of the year, the economic growth was estimated at 4.3% compared
to the corresponding period of last year.

With
the new data included in the quarterly reports, the Statistics Institute has
revised downwards both the growth rate for the first quarter of this year, from
6.4 to 4.4%, and the rate for the second quarter, from 5 to 3.9%, compared to
the corresponding previous quarters.

The
economic analyst Constantin Rudniţchi believes that, while Romania’s economy
has a strong seasonal factor to take into account, such substantial corrections
are not desirable, because they may have a negative impact on companies’
business plans.

Constantin
Rudniţchi: An investor interested in opening a business in Romania may take
this decision based on this 6.4% economic growth rate, because obviously such a
rate, quite exceptional under the current circumstances, makes a market
attractive to investors. But if the growth rate is smaller, only 4%, of course
they will think twice. So these figures may influence an investment decision.

Economic
growth figures also influence all the decisions concerning pensions and wages, and
if statistics change so much, it means those decisions were mistaken, which is
by no means a good thing for the economy, Constantin Rudniţchi also says.

An
incurable optimist, the PM Nicolae Ciucă promises Romania does not risk a
recession:

Nicolae
Ciucă: We have taken measures to strengthen the economy, to keep it in balance
so as not to go into recession. The data we have available at this point
clearly indicates that by the end of the year Romania may well have a roughly
5% economic growth rate, and for next year we expect an economic growth rate of
around 1.5%.

Nonetheless,
forecasts coming from major international financial institutions are rather
gloomy and point to a slowdown of the global economy. And a perfect storm, i.e.
a mixture of elements such as the war in Ukraine, the rise in energy prices and
the inflation pressure, may hit hard some national economies. (AMP)