Will the UK stay in the EU?

Next week, Britain votes to leave or stay in the European Union.

Corina Cristea, 17.06.2016, 14:08

Thirteen of the
most prominent British scientists have announced their support for the campaign
in favour of Britain’s staying in the EU, ahead of an in-out referendum on June
23rd. They argue that with the UK out of the European bloc, the
research field would stand to lose. In an open letter published by The
Telegraph, several Nobel Prize winners say the EU membership enables scientists
to move freely and cooperate in ways that might otherwise be impossible. The EU
funding for the field would also be withdrawn if Britain left the Union, and
therefore the country’s scientific research would be affected. This is just one
of the many areas on which a prospective Brexit would have an impact, and the
consequences are hard to predict.

We asked the
Romanian foreign policy analyst Iulian Chifu how a pro-Brexit vote could be
understood:

It would be a
terrible signal, not necessarily in terms of the British exceptionalism, but
rather in terms of the model that the UK would thus set across the EU. I’ve
seen an opinion poll in the Netherlands, and there, too, 38% of respondents say
they would like a referendum on whether their country should stay in the EU, as
opposed to 28% who don’t. Similar trends have been reported elsewhere as well.
Someone said voices to leave the Union have even been heard in Central Europe,
in countries like the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland and Hungary, which are
the main beneficiaries of European integration. So I think the key danger is a
prospective domino effect. On the other hand, we should not overlook the fact
that the EU is a common economic area and it will be very hard for Britain to
manage an exit formula while still remaining a part of this economic area.

According to the
latest polls run in the UK, the number of voters supporting Brexit is on the
rise, reaching 53% of the number of respondents who have already made up their
minds regarding the referendum. Iulian Chifu mentions however another argument
that would persuade Britons to stay in the EU after all:

There are, in
the UK, at least a number of regions that are totally dependant on European
funds, such as Scotland and Wales. So in this respect, if Britain leaves the EU
there are several problems that will surface again, such as Scottish
separatism, which opposes Brexit, and also separatism in the poorer areas of
the country that depend on funds which Britain is unable to provide, and which
are needed to compensate for specific local jobs in the field of agriculture,
animal breeding and in other sectors supported exclusively by EU funds.

If Brexit
becomes reality, there are possible regional and global consequences to be
expected. Iulian Chifu:

The impact of a
prospective Brexit could even be bigger than that, because there is the danger
of a domino effect. Brexit would also have a consequence in matters related to
security. Britain and all EU countries would be at risk in this respect, as a
breach will be created right at the heart of the Euro-Atlantic and
transatlantic structure. There will also be consequences at economic level, but
also in terms of the credibility of the EU integration formula. The single
market will probably continue to exist, but many of the additional integration
mechanisms in various categories of policies will be shattered. We have already
seen that the future of the Schengen area has been questioned so other
integrationist projects would be put on standby, replaced or even eliminated.

Can the impact
of a prospective Brexit be as big as to generate the dissolution of the EU? In
the opinion of Iulian Chifu, this would be impossible:

I think the
EU’s dismantling is impossible at the moment, as it would have negative effects
for all its members, including Britain. So in terms of common economic area and
border union, there are slim chances for any of the member states to withdraw,
as this would involve huge costs for each of them. I also doubt that the
projects that Britain is not a part of, such as the single currency and the
free movement area, might be affected. Of course, there are several risks in
this respect as well, but they are strictly hypothetical.

According to
Iulian Chifu, a clear signal such as London’s electing its first Muslim mayor,
clearly shows that Britain is more open to multiculturalism than to
autarchy.