New inflation forecasts

The latest price hikes have seriously affected the purchasing power of the Romanians and the estimates concerning inflation arent optimistic at all

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Corina Cristea, 22.03.2022, 14:00

The inflation presently affecting the entire world is seriously diminishing the already small incomes of the Romanians whose purchasing power lowers by the day. Experts estimate that a more difficult period is to come. Inflation shot up to 8.5% in Romania in February this year. However, the rise is relatively low as compared to the previous month and significantly lower than in other countries like the Baltic states for instance. Although in the Eurozone, the Baltic states have an inflation rate between 11% and 14%, while Poland and Bulgaria have already exceeded 9%.

Together with Hungary and Belgium, Romania is at the middle of an EU ranking. In a post on OpiniiBNR.ro blog, the spokesman for Romanias Central Bank (BNR), Dan Suciu, said that Romania had the highest inflation rate in the EU last year. However, the Central Bank believes that inflation will exceed the previous midyear forecast of 11% due to price hikes in fuel, energy and cereals caused by the war in Ukraine, as Cristian Popa, member in the Central Banks board of directors explains.

Cristian Popa: “On one hand we are seeing measures aimed at subsidizing and capping energy prices as they have a major impact on the inflation rate. These measures would lower the inflation rate, but after its publication, the war in Ukraine broke out and we are actually seeing higher prices in oil, gas and various issues in the production line. We are also seeing higher prices in cereals and they have a major impact on basic inflation. We must redo the arithmetic as we are actually witnessing an economic slowdown though the growth rate remains positive, and there is a certain pressure upward.”

According to Cristian Popa, the Central Bank is fighting inflation but also the panic and unrest in this period full of uncertainties, adding that the bank has this situation, which isnt an easy one, under control.

As for the interest rate, the BNR representative says it presently is at the level before the pandemic. BNR is expected to again raise the reference rate in an attempt to keep things under control. On the other hand, Romanias economic growth this year has been estimated around 2-2.5% as compared to 4% before the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine.

(bill)