Downward forecast from the European Commission
The growth of Romania's economy will not be even half of what was estimated in 2024, and the deficit will reach 8% of the GDP, warns the European Commission.
Mihai Pelin, 18.11.2024, 14:00
Romania’s economic growth estimate has been recalculated by the European Commission (EC), at a value well below the initially established figure. In the forecast published in the spring of 2024, the estimate was that the economy would register an advance of 3.3% this year, followed by one of 3.1% in 2025. In a recent document, however, the EC states that the growth rate of the Romanian economy will slow down to 1.4% this year, then accelerate slightly to 2.5% in 2025. During this year, industrial production, constructions, IT and transports have slowed down due to the decrease in external demand from Romania’s main trading partners, the rapid increase in wages and the high energy prices. At the same time, retail sales have grown strongly as available incomes have grown at a rapid pace. However, the dynamic private consumption was largely counteracted by the negative contribution of exports to the GDP growth, while the growth of private investments was moderated by the uncertainty surrounding the expected fiscal consolidation measures, the EC stated.
On the other hand, according to the new forecasts, Romania’s budget deficit is forecast to reach 8% of the GDP in 2024 and to remain at a high level of 7.9% of the GDP in 2025. Comparatively, in the spring, Brussels estimated that the deficit was expected to reach 6.9% of the GDP in 2024 and 7% of the GDP in 2025. According to the EC, the deficit exceeding the expectations reflects a very rapid increase in government spending, mainly due to increases in public sector wages, to spending on goods and services, and social transfers, including pensions. It also reflects a slightly slower revenue growth due to weaker than expected economic activity. The good news is that inflation is expected to continue to decline in Romania, from an average of 10% in 2023, to around 5.5% in 2024. However, pressures on prices remain high, due to strong domestic demand, on the backdrop of increasing salaries and pensions, warns the EC.
Despite the economic slowdown, the demand for jobs remains strong, and the unemployment rate will be 5.5% in 2024 and 2025 and 5.4% in 2026. At the same time, public debt is expected to increase from 48.9% of the GDP in 2023 to almost 60% by 2026. The forecast does not include any impact of the government’s potential budget deficit reduction measures on revenues or expenditures, measures included in the medium-term fiscal and structural plan that Romania presented to the EC in October. These measures are not sufficiently specified by the government at this stage, the report points out. However, they have the potential to significantly reduce the public deficit in relation to this forecast, if they are designed and implemented properly in the budget for 2025. In its latest report, the IMF also revised downwards to 1.9% the estimates regarding the advance of the Romanian economy this year, from 2.8% as forecast in April. (LS)
