The Romanian political scene in an election year

2016 is an election year in Romania, with local elections due on the 5th of June, followed by parliamentary elections towards the end of the year.

Corina Cristea, 15.04.2016, 14:15

2016 is an
election year in Romania, with local elections due on the 5th of
June, followed by parliamentary elections towards the end of the year. This is
the third time in the country’s post-communist history that a technocratic
government is organising the elections. The first time this happened was during
Theodor Stolojan’s tenure, in the 1991-1992 period, and the second during Mugur
Isarescu’s government, in the 1999-2000 period. Endorsed by the two biggest
parties in Romania, the Social Democratic Party and the National Liberal Party,
Dacian Ciolos’ government is also responsible for holding fair elections.
Candidates have already started to submit their applications for the local
elections, before the final list is announced on the 4th of May.

Compared with
four years ago, when 82 different parties and electoral and political alliances
registered for the elections, this number has grown to 126 this time around. Mainstream
parties such as the Social Democratic Party, the National Liberal Party, the
Democratic Union of Ethnic Hungarians in Romania, the Alliance of Liberals and
Democrats for Europe, the National Union for the Progress of Romania and the
People’s Movement Party have been joined by many newly created parties.
According to a new law that came into force in 2015, a new party can be
established if it has at least 3 members. Political analyst Cristian Parvulescu
gives us an overview of the Romanian political scene at the moment:

The political
scene in Romania is in disarray, mainly because of corruption scandals. This is
what the situation is like at this moment, at the beginning of April, but
things may change. For example, the fact that Ludovic Orban has withdrawn his
bid for Bucharest mayor following a corruption scandal is proof of this and may
create problems for parties, given that the system for electing local mayors
favours the big parties and incumbent mayors. There is, however, a large degree
of uncertainty, which has to do with the parties’ ability to mobilise their own
voters, on the one hand, and with the reaction of society and voters, on the
other. Will we see a high turnout? Will those who are dissatisfied with the
political class turn up to vote? Will people vote for the newly created
parties? These are questions to which we do not have an answer yet, but which
show how unsettled the political scene is at the moment.

According to a
recent INSCOP poll, more than 90% of Romanian voters say they would no longer
vote for a candidate who is under investigation or has been sentenced for acts
of corruption, while 88% believe public figures who receive a final sentence
for corruption should not be allowed to hold a public office. Could this attitude
be a sign that something has changed in the mentality of the Romanian voters
and that Romania’s political scene might look differently after the upcoming
elections? Here is Cristian Parvulescu again:

It’s hard to
make predictions. We have to wait and see what happens during the elections.
It’s clear, though, that incumbent mayors have an advantage in this race. Of
course the National Anticorruption Directorate is a major player, its actions
leading to many candidates dropping out of the race and thus relaunching the
election race in many places across Romania, such as Bucharest, Constanta,
Iasi, Ploiesti and Brasov, but in the end it all boils down to the citizens and
their votes. We’ll see on June 6th if they are really determined to
go all the way or if they only said those things for the sake of convenience.

Just how important is the anti-corruption agenda for
voters considering that some former mayors enjoy popularity rates of 50%
despite being under investigation for corruption? Cristian Parvulescu says he
is not surprised:

We have to
take opinion polls for what they are, namely instruments used to take the pulse
of public opinion and the way in which public opinion perceives certain things.
Opinion polls shouldn’t be regarded as absolute truths. Things are changing.
I’m reminding you that Victor Ponta was leading in every opinion poll in 2014
ahead of the elections, but voters changed everything, and this could happen in
the local elections as well. I agree there is a certain amount of support for
incumbent mayors due to voters’ inertia, especially among voters who do turn up
to vote. We will probably see many mayors get re-elected who have problems with
the law but who have not been convicted yet and can therefore run for office.
However, this doesn’t mean corruption is not a major issue for public opinion
or that people don’t make the connection between corruption and mayoral
elections.

How will the local political scene look like at the end of
this year? Cristian Parvulescu believes it won’t be different from what we have
now:

We’ll probably see new faces, because political parties
will be forced to come up with new candidates. Under the current legislation, I
don’t see many independent candidates and political parties entering the race.
However, this opinion is based on what has happened so far, the experience of
previous elections. With the exception of the presidential elections, voter
turnout has been low and low turnout in the local and parliamentary elections
favours existing parties, not new ones.

Cristian Parvulescu said, however, that new
faces may still join the race and that big cities, Bucharest in particular,
will play a key role in fashioning a new political landscape in Romania.