Moldova’s European Future
The future of the Republic of Moldova does not sound good at all if the war in Ukraine does not finish as we all wish it would
Corina Cristea, 21.04.2023, 18:17
The future of the Republic of Moldova does not sound good at all if the war in Ukraine does not finish as we all wish it would, even if Russian troops do not actually go into the Republic of Moldova. At that point, hope for Romanians on the left bank of the river Prut would be blown up, and the moment that there ceases to be hope for the European project in the Republic of Moldova, the consequences would be almost as bad as a Russian occupation. This is part of the statement made for Radio Romania by Dan Dungaciu, director of the Institute for Political Science and International Relations with the Romanian Academy, who made an analysis of the situation in the former Soviet republic. According to him, security is at stake, because the Republic of Moldova cannot integrate into the EU, if it does not control its territory, because a case similar to that of Cyprus would not be acceptable to Brussels:
“For the time being, Romania is still the shortest way for European integration for Moldova, which will always be what remains standing by it when everything is taken away. In a final, dramatic situation, Romania is still here, ready to take on an even tragic partnership with the Republic of Moldova. That country is in a state of uncertainty which is generated by the incertitude in the Ukraine. Let us hope that the war, however it may end, will still leave a gap sufficiently wide between Moldova and the area under full scale war. As Ms. Maia Sandu herself suggested, if Russian troops come even closer to Odessa and the Black Sea, then Moldova stands no real chance of being defended. And this would be in the end the big issue for the Republic of Moldova, the way in which it solves its security problems.”
As Dan Dungaciu points out, politically speaking, right now, unfortunately, in the Republic of Moldova the side that is pro-east, or is not pro-west, has wind in its sails, as a result of the ambiguous war situation in Ukraine. Russia wont give up the idea of taking over power in Moldova, and is acting in various ways to install in Chisinau an obedient ruling class. This was a statement made by the present leader in Chisinau, speaking for the Voice of Bessarabia. According to the pro-West Maia Sandu, it is only the heroism of the Ukrainian army that keeps the front line far from the border between Ukraine and Moldova, but her country is facing elements of a hybrid war. This opinion is shared by Anatol Selaru, political observer, and former member of the government in Chisinau:
“The Republic of Moldova is the target of a hybrid attack from Russia, it is the target of attempts to destabilize and overthrow the government. We can see weekly protests in Chisinau by the Shor Party and their supporters, but these are not economic or political protests. These are paid protests, no one comes to these protests without money, they are all paid starting from 20 Euro, up to thousands of Euro, depending on their particular task. Sadly, until a few months ago, the Republic of Moldovas governance did not want to admit the existence of this provocation, did not want to admit it is the target of a hybrid wary, and that we are, directly or indirectly, in the crosshairs in this war waged by Russia.”
External pressures can destabilize gravely the internal situation in Moldova, because state institutions are weak, and not up to the task of dealing with these challenges. As for the war in Ukraine, the analyst added, the pressure is great, and only Ukraines victory can guarantee Moldovas security, and guarantee bringing to a conclusion negotiations to join the EU, guaranteeing at the same time issues with separatism.
“Because, once Ukraines army prevails in this war, the Russian army, which is illegally stationed in Transdnestr, can simply go home in peace, because no one will allow this foothold in Transdnestr. The separatists, which are now encouraged by Moscow, pro-Russian parties and the fifth column, which get money and support from Moscow, will no longer get support. Transdnestr separatism, which is propped up by the Russian Army, free Russian gas, and economic aid from Moscow, will no longer get these things, because the gas pipeline that reaches Transdnestr crosses the territory of Ukraine. Gagauz separatism, which is also encouraged by Moscow, and partially by Hungary, will cease to exist, and then many of the problems we have today will vanish.”
Anatol Selaru added that the Republic of Moldova is going through a very hard time, and it should be mentioned that it could always rely on help from Romania, without whose help it could not have weathered all the crises it faced so far. As the political analyst concluded, Romania was Moldovas advocate in the West, in the EU. There has been not a single meeting in Brussels or in any other place in the world discussing this areas problems in which Romania failed to bring up the issues with the Republic of Moldova, bringing up the help that Europe has to grant this small country, which is the weak link in this geopolitical area. He said that, lacking support from Romania and the EU, Moldova would not have been able to cope on any level with the problems it has faced so far.
