Major Challenges in 2025
"Connections no longer mean peace, economic relationships no longer lead to security"
Corina Cristea, 17.01.2025, 13:22
The war in Ukraine, the situation in the Middle East, Donald Trump’s return to the White House, elections in France, Germany and Poland – these are events that mark the path forward in the year 2025. A year in which the European Union, long convinced that a major war in Europe was never possible again, must continue to come up with adequate answers. Established as an entity to manage peace, the EU woke up in 2022 facing a harsh reality with the Russian Federation’s initiation of the conflict in Ukraine. A conflict that has already been going on for almost three years, and that is not known when and how will end. Europe’s shock was the shock of the continent, which understands that a major war is possible on its territory, says university professor Dan Dungaciu. What has Europe learned so far? Especially since the relationship, interaction, contacts, and economic connections produce peace, as the EU was established after the Second World War through the economic cooperation of France and Germany. It is also how the EU behaved later, when interconnection was producing peace and security, but everything the Union knew until today has gone down the drain, believes Professor Dungaciu.
“Connections no longer mean peace, economic relationships no longer lead to security. On the contrary, connections, connectivity, interactions can produce war. Hence the decoupling from the Russian Federation, later the decoupling from China, and so on. The great challenge of the European Union is that it must reinvent itself in its very substance. The second challenge, which is less visible, is that the EU, which was established as a post-national project – not necessarily anti-national, but post-national – is waking up today in a reality that is acutely national, through the war in Ukraine. Because Ukraine’s resistance to the aggression of the Russian Federation is, first and foremost, a national resistance. Ukraine is reinventing itself, finding itself, developing, and so on. So, here are two major challenges that the Union must manage, in one form or another. The extent to which it will manage them, obviously, will test the EU’s capacity to continue this project that began long ago, but which today is, perhaps, facing its greatest challenge.”
Towards the end of 2024, the war in Ukraine has in some ways entered a shadow area as a result of developments in the Middle East, including the fall of the Assad regime in Syria. A strategic political victory for Israel, believes university professor Dan Dungaciu.
“Basically, the fall of Syria today means a major disadvantage for the Iranian state, which sees itself as being deprived of the most important corridor through which it feeds its most powerful proxy, Hezbollah. So, what does this mean? This means that we will witness, from the moment the White House approaches this case, thought probably the first will be the Ukrainian one, we will witness a redrawing of the entire Middle East. Because what happened in Syria obviously will not stay in Syria. What will happen to this country itself, which was in many ways a quasi-artificial construction, remains to be seen, but it is clear that extremely important strategic emanations start from Syria. One that leads to Turkey, another that leads to Iran, another that leads to Israel and so on, and all of which will have to be managed in one form or another. They cannot do it from the inside. One way or another, the Trump administration will have to try to set a framework for future developments.”
Dan Dungaciu adds that we are facing an extremely complicated case, but one that we must ultimately follow in 2025. That is because it will be one of the most important, even if not very visible, major changes that are happening today in the Middle East, and which are unprecedented.
“It will be very interesting to see how the American administration of Donald Trump will try to approach the Middle East, being involved there, but not entering, not being militarily present in that region. Because, if Donald Trump fears anything at the beginning of his administration, it is being caught in a war, which would be the recipe for failure for Donald Trump, who has only one major project: to become the greatest American president, at least in the last hundred years.”
Returning to Europe, a great challenge remains the information and cyber war waged by Russia – a hybrid war, which fuels the extremist trends. In 2025, decisive elections will take place in Europe – in France, in Germany, presidential elections in Poland, all with major stakes, recalls Dan Dungaciu, who draws attention to the fact that the greatest security danger is the creation of a climate in which the propaganda of the Russian Federation takes hold and spreads. Not the propaganda itself, but the climate you establish in certain societies, insists university professor Dr. Dan Dungaciu – this was the great failure of the European mainstream, and he believes that from there we must start the reevaluation of the European public space, so that it is better protected against the obvious interference of the Russian Federation.
