Geopolitical Developments

An outlook on US-Russia relations.

Corina Cristea, 23.08.2013, 13:25

Speaking at the annual Ministry of Defense meeting, Russian leader Vladimir Putin enumerated what he believes to be the main challenges of the century. Among them: the launch of the second stage in the deployment of the anti-ballistic missile shield, continued attempts to expand NATO eastwards, and the danger of militarizing the Arctic Circle. The Russian president spoke about the Russian security priorities, and referred to threats and unstable areas, as well as the armed conflicts in the Middle East and Asia, with the danger of exporting radicalism in Russia’s vicinity. Putin called these dangers acts of defiance against Russia, challenging directly Russia’s national interests, which define its political priorities. Radio Romania’s correspondent in Moscow, Alexandr Beleavschi, explains:

Alexandr Beleavschi: “One of the fundamental concepts behind the new foreign policy applied by Russia is that of indivisible security. The document points out that Russia will build its relationship with NATO in terms of NATO’s availability to have an equal partnership, full compliance with international law, and the real steps taken by NATO in creating a common space of peace and security in the Euro-Atlantic region, as well as full compliance with commitments made as part of the NATO- Russia Council, namely of refraining from providing security for itself at Russia’s expense. The doctrine confirms Russia’s negative attitude towards NATO expansion, and the Alliance’s military infrastructure getting closer to its borders.”

The most important of Russia’s priorities is developing closer integration in the Euro-Asian space, including strengthening the economic space defined by Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus, as well as creating a Euro-Asian economic union, Putin added. At the same time, Russia has to contribute to the strengthening of the world’s multipolar character by developing joint reaction mechanisms to regional security threats, including the consolidation of the military component of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, a structure formed by several former soviet republics, which Moscow leads.

Under these conditions, in which geopolitical evolution forces Russia to take rapid and well designed action, the Russian president called for a massive modernization of armed forces over the next five years. In Washington, US President Barack Obama made a proposal to reduce strategic armaments alongside Russia. Here is Alexandr Beleavschi again:

Alexandr Beleavschi: “According to the Russian-American START treaty, signed by presidents Medvedev and Obama in 2010, the two nuclear superpowers will downsize their arsenals to no more than 1,550 nuclear warheads, and vectors to 800, of which no more than 700 get deployed. In his State of the Union address, President Obama said he would make even more disarmament proposals to Russia. Russian military experts, however, believe that this is not in Russia’s best interest. The first reason is that for the time being, American arsenals surpass the limits set by START, while Russian arsenals are at the limit, or even below. One other reason is the different structure of the two nuclear triads. The Russian triad is centered on land-based strategic missiles, while the American one is centered on ballistic missile submarines. Another argument is the huge superiority that the US enjoys in terms of modern conventional armaments, especially in terms of high-precision ammunitions. The fourth reason is the geopolitical neighborhood, with Russia neighboring China, North Korea, Pakistan and Iran, while the US neighbors only Mexico and Canada.”

The meeting in Berlin between US Secretary of State John Kerry and his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, did not yield concrete answers to any of the major issues dividing the US and Russia, including the issue of the anti-ballistic missile shield. Before the meeting, the idea of a compromise circulated, a compromise consisting of a political statement signed by the presidents of the two countries, providing that the shield is not aimed against Russian nuclear forces.

After the talks in Germany, the head of the Russian diplomacy dismissed these speculations, saying that if an agreement cannot be reached on building a joint shield, Moscow does not want statements, but guarantees that it will not be aimed against itself, guarantees that can be verified based on objective technical and military criteria, which Washington repeatedly said it cannot provide. For the time being, in Moscow, the modernization and restocking of the army for 2011-2020 provides for some 650 billion dollars being allocated, which some experts believe Russia will have a hard time providing.