Geopolitical challenges

A look at the latest developments in the area and the geo-political challenges in Romanias neighbouring region.

Corina Cristea, 17.10.2014, 13:23

The Russian economy is one step away from recession, and the sanctions slapped on it for its involvement in Ukraine have plunged its currency to its lowest level against the euro and dollar. Calling for the resumption of political dialogue, Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said:

“Sanctions is the business of our western colleagues, the business of the countries that decided to use this illegal instrument for some reason, possibly just to take their frustration out on us. It’s their problem. We did not choose this path.”

Recently, the US said it may remove some of the sanctions against Russia if Moscow lived up to an agreement reached in Minsk on 5 September, which resulted in a cease fire between the Ukrainian forces and the pro-Russian separatists.

Ahead of his first visit to the West in the last 4 months to attend the Asia-Europe summit in Milan, Russia’s president Vladimir Putin took a step towards reducing tensions in Ukraine and between Russia and the West, which are now in their worst conflict since the end of the Cold War. He ordered the defence minister to pull back the Russian troops which have been engaged since summer in military exercises on the border with Ukraine.

US Secretary of State John Kerry confirmed that Russian troops are retreating from Ukraine and the border area, but that clashes between the pro-Russian separatists and the Ukrainian forces continue to make victims. He called for a stop to fighting around Donetsk airport, the pullout of all foreign armament and the release of all hostages. He also emphasised that sovereignty must be restored along the Russia-Ukraine border, and that these were the main conditions under which sanctions would be lifted.

At the same time, while in Kiev, US Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland said that it was unlikely for NATO allies would accept Ukraine as a member. She said the country already enjoys close cooperation, and that the Alliance keeps its doors open to any country meeting its criteria.

Prestigious US analysts specialising in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet space say Romania is a Euro-Atlantic island surrounded by states favourable towards Russia, pointing out the various arrangements that states around Romania have with Moscow.

Edward Lucas, an editorialist with The Economist, trying to answer the question of how vulnerable Romania is to pressure from the Kremlin, said that it was vulnerable, because it is surrounded by countries that have agreements with the Russians, meaning Bulgaria to the south and Hungary to the north west, as well as Ukraine to the north. He also pointed out that Ukraine also has an agreement with Russia. Moldova, which is very much under Russian influence, may find itself even more so. He also mentioned Serbia, saying Romania was surrounded by pro-Russian countries.

John Herbst agrees that every single Eastern European country which is part of NATO is vulnerable to pressure from the Kremlin. He says Vladimir Putin pursues a very aggressive policy, and the West has to understand this.

According to Edward Lucas, as Ukraine gets weaker, and people’s lives get harder and harder, the population becomes more desperate and the Russian propaganda gets more and more effective:

The Atlantic Councils Eurasia Center director John Herbst recalled that, over the last six weeks, Russia has seriously provoked the Baltic states, abducting an Estonian counterintelligence officer on Estonian territory close to the Russian border, seizing Lithuanian boats and asking Lithuania to extradite to Russia Lithuanian citizens who refused to get drafted into the Russian army in the early 1990s. All these gestures are meant to prove that the Baltic states are not safe as NATO members.