Effects of Climate Change

Max Planck Institute says by 2100 a new category of refugees will emerge: climate refugees.

Corina Cristea, 19.08.2016, 14:00

If you think the ongoing influx of refugees is a large-scale phenomenon, imagine a calamity which is hundreds of times bigger than that, and which is sure to occur in the near future. This is the grim forecast of the experts working for the Max Planck Institute in Germany. They say that, against the backdrop of a global temperature increase, over 500 million people will have no other choice but leave their home countries. Statistics have revealed that between 1986 and 2005 there were around 16 days with extreme heat per year. Climate data point to the fact that this number is on the rise and by the end of the century will surely reach 200. Heat waves accompanied by sandstorms will turn the Middle East and North Africa into places where survival will be virtually impossible. But beyond statistics, the effect of climate change is felt everywhere. Mircea Dutu, the rector of the Ecological University in Bucharest, told us about the most relevant effects of the climate change and also about the areas where such effects are most visible.

Mircea Dutu: Theres no doubt that these effects are diverse and mainly consist in extreme phenomena occurring with a greater frequency, such as temperature increases, lengthy drought periods, sweltering heat, rainfalls coming at a faster pace, flooding and other related phenomena. The most severely affected by that are the agriculture, the transport system, but also peoples daily life. Climate change is a fact that can no longer be denied, it can be felt at global, regional and local level, and something substantial needs to be done on two key levels, given that such phenomena are mainly caused by human action, through the use of fossil fuels and greenhouse gas emissions. “

Temperature at global level is on the rise, the patterns of precipitations change, glaciers and snow melt, and the global sea level is also on the rise – it is a reality which cannot be denied. Experts expect these changes to continue, and extreme weather phenomena that lead to threats such as floods and drought to occur more often, and to get stronger.

Mircea Dutu: “Throughout the world, sensitive areas have been identified that are more vulnerable to climate change, such as India, Bangladesh, and the Vanuatu archipelago in the Pacific Ocean, but also in North Africa and the Middle East, which are thought to be going to be affected worse by climate change. A study recently published by the Max Planck Institute in Germany and an institute in Cyprus shows that North Africa and the Middle East will be some of the worst affected areas by the year 2100, with average temperatures rising, increased sweltering heat waves, diminished farming output, and hundreds of thousands of people being displaced, seeking refuge in Europe or other parts of the world. There are studies and predictions currently issued stating that by 2100 a new category of refugees will emerge, climate refugees. It is believed as many as 800 million people might end up in this situation, seeking refuge to other territories because of climate change.

Studies run by environmental agencies indicate that the Mediterranean area and even some northern areas are the most sensitive to climate change, says Mircea Dutu:

Mircea Dutu: “These are areas which are developing more frequent and more intense extreme weather phenomena, desertification is more and more obvious, we foresee a higher and higher impact on agriculture and food production, which will impact standards of living and the quality of life, and doubtlessly this will create migration pressure. As an aside, we have to say that, with regard to Syria, there have been speculations that conflicts and population migration have behind them a certain climatic theme, so to say say, in the sense that until 2012 we saw a period of continued drought, and in that situation a lot of people living in farming areas had to move to cities, which generated social tensions, eventually resulting in the war and the massive exodus, mostly towards Europe.

EU initiatives have been issued to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. According to Mircea Dutu, under the present circumstances we have to expect the EU to redefine its policies towards energy consumption and climate change, with more commitment from member states.