A Result That Everyone Cares About

The outcome of the US presidential election and how it will influence global developments is at the center of international attention

Corina Cristea, 15.11.2024, 13:17

The outcome of the US presidential election and how it will influence global developments is at the center of international attention. The return to the White House of Donald Trump, the winner of an extremely close race until the last moment, generates both expectations and uncertainty. Through various key points of his policy, from the focus on the economy, to his strategies on immigration and foreign relations, through his position on sensitive issues such as the war in Ukraine or climate change, the new course of American politics will not leave anyone indifferent, analysts say.

Here is an analysis by international relations professor Ştefan Ciochinaru:

“Donald Trump’s election was very good news for Budapest, very good news for Moscow, very bad news for Beijing, very bad news for Brussels, for London. The day after the American election night, the British met in an emergency meeting in which they discussed, with great attention, the need to abandon Brexit, to return to Europe. Trump, in the first six months, will assemble his team and start solving some of the problems he promised. He promised to solve illegal migration in the United States, even at the cost of deporting over 11 million people. He also promised to solve the economic catastrophe in which America finds itself. And how will he do this? He said it. One: he will reduce taxes, duties, so as to encourage production as much as possible, he will encourage the repatriation of some industries to the US, which will be exempt from duties and taxes, which duties and taxes, in fact tariffs, will be applied in a way that is close to economic warfare.”

That is, for European products, import tariffs from the EU will start from 10 and will reach up to 20%, and for Chinese products up to 60%. What does this mean? Again, professor Ștefan Ciochinaru:

“This means economic wars, that is, let’s not shy away from words, because they tell us what the reality is. Trump will do these things, without a doubt, but this will generate other problems. Sure, jobs will be created. Sure, the economy will accelerate in growth. In fact, the signals on the stock markets are good after Trump’s election, shares have increased, but it will generate very big social problems, because there will be little money for the health system, which is unjust and unbalanced in America anyway. There will be less money for education, there will be less money for social programs, inclusion, and so on.”

One of the issues that Donald Trump will face once he returns to the White House is climate change, which he has called “a hoax” in the past. A long-time skeptic of global warming and action to combat climate change, Trump withdrew the US from the 2016 Paris Agreement on climate change during his previous term. And the concern is that, once installed as president, he will repeat this gesture, after Biden brought Washington back into the Agreement, and will encourage the construction of gas pipelines, drilling and extraction in Alaska. This is a concern fueled by the fact that after the election results were announced, the share prices of wind energy producers fell massively. The impact on the two hot wars, in Ukraine and the Middle East, is also under the microscope of analysts. Again, Professor Ștefan Ciochinaru:

“In Ukraine, it is clear that there will be negotiations with Moscow and Kiev, and that, as Trump has stated, he will try to impose peace by force, by the force of America, by a political and strategic ultimatum to the two states. What will this entail? Trump is a merchant, a businessman, a guy who likes to negotiate. What he will negotiate, how far the negotiation will go, no one knows at the moment, all kinds of scenarios are emerging. I would not give them much credibility at this point, because there are limits to how far the negotiation can go and that Donald Trump, in his characteristic enthusiasm, has not yet discovered. It remains to be seen, then.”

And in the Middle East, in Jerusalem, Benjamin Netanyahu was one of those happy for Trump’s election, recalls Ștefan Ciochinaru:

“He is a friend of Trump. It is clear that the noose will be tightened around Iran, that the Abraham Accords will be put back on the table, that the position of Saudi Arabia will be greatly strengthened. It is very possible that next year we will even see a Saudi Arabia-Israel peace agreement, and probably even a kind of small common market will appear in the Middle East. But, I repeat, everything is based on encircling, fencing Iran off, and completely removing from the game what Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis mean, that is, those proxy actors of Iran.”

As for the policy of the United States towards the eastern flank, towards what is currently the first line of defense of NATO and the free world, this is done in Congress, at the White House, but especially at the Pentagon, says Professor Ciochinaru. There they place the pieces on the board like chess and think about moves ahead, years in advance, things will not change here. However, Donald Trump’s position is well known, he believes that the amounts of his country’s aid to Ukraine are too high, and he has asked European NATO allies to allocate more money for their own security.